The Forthcoming First Amendment Fight

The First Amendment is a cherished institution in the United States. Despite being at the forefront of the latest culture war, the rights it grants are often grossly misunderstood.

Many believe the First Amendment protects all speech, i.e., people are free to say or write whatever they want. However, “[t]he U.S. Supreme Court often has struggled to determine what exactly constitutes protected speech.”

In other words, speech in a private context, especially in online spaces controlled by corporations, isn’t necessarily protected. People can say what they want, but the platform or publication can moderate or remove content based on their rules. While some may disagree, platforms have a right to do so, at least for now.

The forthcoming Trump administration will install people who have a very specific understanding of free speech into power, and we all need to be worried.

Brandon Carr will be the next FCC Chair and have the power to define what the media can and cannot do. While journalistic integrity is instrumental to democracy, Carr has been clear that right only extends to views he agrees with. Carr’s assertions are a way of threatening publishers to self-censor in fear of upsetting their new overlord or face his wrath, which could include removing broadcast licenses. This is not protecting free speech. It’s taking advantage of a bully pulpit.

Andrew Ferguson will be the next FTC Chair and have the power to regulate businesses. Like Carr, Ferguson is on a mission to “hold big tech accountable and stop censorship.” Ferguson believes that social media algorithms intentionally block right-wing views, and he wants to fix it. It’s also worth mentioning that Ferguson wants to “fight back against the trans agenda,” which tells you about everything you need to know about this guy.

These guys want to remove private companies’ ability to regulate content to protect “free speech.” All they will end up doing is allowing hate speech to flourish and scare anyone from holding them accountable. These guys are dangerous, and anyone with an opinion counter to theirs should be scared.

Free speech is on the line in 2025. Things will get bleak, and journalistic institutions will either self-censor or face political repercussions. If the government can choose to go after publishers, there likely isn’t anything to stop them from going after bloggers and creators, too.

It’s dark, but there is hope. We must continue calling out oppressive acts and challenge infringements of our rights. There are many ways to do this, but here are a few of the ways I am acting:

• Supporting the ACLU’s fight for actual free speech.
• Following the EFF’s coverage of free speech infringements.
• Subscribing to independent journalism, like The Verge, 404 Media, and Platformer, that keep us informed of attacks on free speech.

Last year, I predicted 2024 would focus on a far more personal internet. This trend needs to continue in 2025.

A better internet starts with us, members of the personal and independent web, advocating for our rights. We need to advocate for actual free speech, not government-sponsored censorship. I hope you will join me.

How My 2024 Predictions Fared

The personal web did make a strong comeback in 2024, which is very exciting. Platforms continued to melt, and independent journalists and creators really excelled in rebuilding the web.

This year, RSS and personalized social media like Mastodon and Bluesky were big players. As a result, people started to see the value of algorithmic- and attention-free social feeds.

There is still a long way to go in taking the internet back from corporate interests, but 2024 was a great year filled with progress. Want to start a website in 2025? Start with this manifesto.

One prediction that did not come true in 2024 was revising my book. I had good intentions (and I still want to do so), but I could not find the motivation to make it happen. Maybe 2025? There are no promises.

My Predictions for 2025

Speaking of 2025, let’s throw out some predictions, both big and small:

• We’ll see companies taking more drastic measures to try and control the internet. Case in point: Meta is building a $10 billion underwater pipeline to run internet cabling. Do we really want Meta to control internet infrastructure? What’s more, do we want Meta controlling nuclear reactors? Yikes.
• Elon Musk will try to turn X into some kind of government-subsidized platform like every other business he runs. It’s no secret that Musk wants X to be an “everything” app similar to what exists in China. With his new proximity to power, he will push harder for what he wants. See the speech implications I mentioned above for why this is a bad idea.
• People will realize that Bluesky is no different from other corporate-owned social media. It will continue to have a personality compared to the brand-safe Threads, but it will otherwise not be much different.
• Threads will not enable full federation features, like account transfer. The media will be shocked, but, really, this was always going to be the outcome.
• Mastodon will continue to grow quietly and be the most engaging and safe social media option that most people will never touch.
• Generative AI will fade in popularity as attention is turned toward boring AI that helps make things easier. Apple will likely be the first company to realize the power of on-device AI services whenever their Apple intelligence features finally launch in earnest.

I’ll probably be wrong on most of these, but maybe not? What are your predictions for 2025?

Ok, that’s enough for 2024. I’ll see you on the other side of the calendar.